97 years of stats says you should do this instead

97 years of stats says you should do this instead

If you zoom out on a long-term chart of the Dow, you’ll see that the uptrend has been pervasive.

Buy and hold in the U.S has worked out pretty well despite some serious drawdowns over the past 100 years.

But what about in the short-term?

What is the likelihood of the average day being up?

Is it 50% like a coin flip? 60%?

These are numbers you should know just as surely as you should know your odds of beating the dealer when playing blackjack.

Since 1920, the average day on the Dow Industrials has been up 52.18% of the time.

So slightly better than a coin flip.

The average 5-trading-day period: Up 55.80% of the time (with a miniscule average gain of 0.06%)

10-day: Up 57.24% of the time

20-day: Up 59.31% of the time

60-day: Up 62.26% of the time with an average gain of 1.74%

1-year: Up 68.33% of the time with an average gain of 7.84%

10-year: Up 83.57% of the time with an average gain of 92.75%

So clearly, the short-term holding periods have the most noise, while long-term holds capture much more signal.

It’s even worse for day traders where the long-term upward bias in the market is filtered out, and no better than a coin flip.

In other words, the more short-term your strategy, the less wiggle room you have for any mistakes.

Yet for some strange reason (usually a lack of capital), traders will often start as day traders and lose money faster than a jack rabbit on redbull.

It’s often the financial equivalent of slitting your wrists with a samurai sword.

A friend of mine recently became involved with more active investing.

He looked at his number – you know…THE NUMBER …the amount of money you’re supposed to have saved up by now to afford more than scraps in retirement age.

So I hooked him up with the Smart Money Indicator signals (yup, still bullish as of today, as it has been all year).

But within two weeks, he wanted some action.

“What about your short-term systems”?

“How can I get those”? he asked.

“Hold on Tex!”

“You haven’t even put together a winning year yet. Just hold your horses.”

You have to crawl before you can walk.

I’ve talked to hundreds of clients with varying years of experience.

Many more than you realize have told me secretly that they’ve never had a winning year despite years of trading.

One of my best friends is going on 20 years because he refuses to hold anything for more than a week…except his losers…and he has no system, just his “gut.”

They say that success leaves clues.

Well so does failure.

If you’re failing short-term, switch to longer-term strategies.

After you’ve had some success (and it says so on your tax return), try shortening your time horizon with proven strategies.
Short-term strategies are what we've been working so hard on all year.

Currently, we’re working on finding Proven Profitable Price Patterns using supercomputer technology.

That’s a mouthful. P4 for short.

So instead of relying on the technicians from the 1930’s who had zero access to computers, and therefore never scientifically proved or disproved a dang thang about price patterns…

…we’re going to look at every… single… price… pattern in our 50,000 stock database, find all the times they’ve happened, and see which are the most profitable AFTER they occurred.

It actually takes a trillion trillion calculations to do, but since we don’t have a few years to wait around and twiddle our thumbs, I found a mathematical shortcut.

I’m totally nerding out right now.

Thank you Mr. Coker for cattle prodding me headfirst into math and science!

I’m sure we’re going to end up with tens of thousands of price patterns that are garbage…no better than a coin flip we talked about.

We’ll get rid of the noise and concentrate on the top few that are statistically proven winners.

The absolute crème de la crème.

I’m more interested in the patterns that result in big gains.

In 2008, I discovered what I call the lightning bolt pattern for intraday trading — completely by accident I might add.

I doubled my account on that one pattern alone.

Imagine having 40 or 50 in your arsenal!

Well, I’d like to share those patterns with you as soon as we’re finished.

But there’s one catch…

I need your help. More specifically, millions of people need your help.

The recent hurricanes have devastated the Houston area, and now most of the state of Florida.

The devastation is near total in some areas.

People are in critical need of your help.

I found a charity called Direct Relief that gives 99.4% of all money donated to the victims (you can even specify exactly where the money goes).


Charity Navigator ranks them 100 out of 100.


When you go to Direct Relief, just click on the Donate button in the upper right, and I'll give you the P4 report as an incentive to act now.

Donate any amount you are able to, and forward me your receipt to [email protected] and I’ll give you free access to the P4 report when it’s finished.

We've already generated thousands of dollars, with many giving $50, $100, and more.

I'll also memorialize your name on the report with a special shout out.

Imagine seeing “With special thanks and eternal gratitude to YOU” in my next report.

(if you want to remain anonymous, just let me know).

Please do so right away because there are folks in dire straights right now, right this instant, and we need to shoot over supplies to them immediately.

Donate with Direct Relief now >>

Just forward the email receipt to me when you donate.

Trade smart,

Dan “Prince of Proof” Murphy

PS. Don't forget to donate and send me your receipt for the P4 bonus report!

PPS. Please don't wait around to get to this. People need your help NOW, so act fast.