Transcription:
Hey, Dan here and today I had to go ahead and type in a phrase into the ol’ Google and that was ‘biggest lie’ and this was the first thing that came up, I’ll tell you why I typed that in later, but the biggest lie ‘the check is in the mail’. There's actually some pretty funny ones on this list. You can type in ‘biggest lie’ on Google and you’ll find: ‘my wife doesn’t understand me’, ‘of course I love you’, ‘drinking? Why no officer’. Those are some good ones.
You know what are not some good ones? These are, in fact, awful. The reason why I even typed in biggest lie is because everything that I see coming out from the United States government for statistics has been a lie. What do we call the CPI? The inflation data – that’s the CP-Lie. Well what did I see today in the headlines and I've heard about this for a while but I'm not big in the news but this was interesting, that the new housing starts.
This has been way overestimated for years. They’re saying this can be overestimated by 20 per cent. What kind of err is that? That is baloney. Hogwash I call it, shenanigans. The same thing with the CPI, the CP-Lie number, is total fabrication. You can actually go to shadow stats, let me see if I can pull up a chart real quick. I’ll show you this real quick and I'm going to get into some other stuff in a second here.
I’ll just close up by saying, looking at the unemployment rate based on shadowstats.com, its well over 20%. It’s probably pretty realistic too and the same thing with the CPI should really say it should be over 6%. We’re all seeing it at the grocery store. Oil is still up there. The only thing that is deflating is natural gas, pretty much. There's a hiccup recently with precious metal and so fourth, I’ll get into that in a second but I just want to talk about that real quick and that to me is one of the biggest lies out there.
One of the numbers that's really and quite frankly impossible to fabricate and why would they because it’s not really not announced to the public is the numbers that make up my smart money indicator. This goes really to the heart of the issue of, basically, people are either dumb traders or they’re smart traders. Follow the smart guys, go against the dumb money. The smart money indicator does just that and it is saying that we are in a bear market.
At least bearish, is what I’ll call it, because sometimes these things don't go down more than 20%. They could be quite volatile and move around several percent but I think the definition of a bear market is if you're closing under 20%. Let me get to it real quick and just give you some thought about what is going on. The smart money indicator went bearish right over here. Market did go straight down from there.
Rebounded at the 50% retracement level and that’s usually pretty significant because this rally was pretty good size and you're also on top of the 50% retracement level right here, and so what I'm going to do is, I'm going to be looking for some sort of opportunity to actually short this market and perhaps we’ll get a rally and the reason why I always anticipate rallies after a decline is simply the S&P 500 is a mean reverting market.
Goes like that a lot of the time and occasionally you’ll get large moves like this but the majority of the time it is ping-ponging back and forth is probably the best way I can say it. So that’s what I'm looking at right now as we head into option expiration which, usually when the smart money indicator is bearish, you don’t really see large rallies in front of option expiration but maybe I’ll be proven wrong this time.
Anyways, I do have a partial short position, by the way, on the inner swing trade for the S&P 500. Let’s just go ahead and we’ll look at; I was going to cover some markets like gold and silver and oil, maybe we’re actually short right now. That's my hint to you but I'm actually going to jam out of here and we’re already at about five minutes and I just want to mention to you real quick before I go hit the gym and work off some of these damn holidays cookies I ate a ton of last night, and I just want to remind you that on January 3rd next year which is coming up really fast here.
In 2012, I'm going to be reopening, for the first time in many, many months, my Million Dollar Target Mentorship Program. What I’ll do is redirect you over right now. You can sign up and I’ll send you an email probably about a week before it opens as a reminder and tell you exactly what it is that I have to offer. I’m just going to go ahead and send you over there right now. Take it easy.